Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3616 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 3616 BWI 06:10 → MIA 08:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1779 BWI 19:03 → MIA 21:39 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3616 Southwest	BWI 06:10	MIA 08:58	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	13%	4%	0.9%	87%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:47	MIA 13:43	31%	11%	8.3%	67%
WN 1908 Southwest	BWI 11:40	MIA 14:28	33%	7%	5.8%	no record
WN 437 Southwest	BWI 20:35	MIA 23:14	38%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:03	MIA 21:39	48%	14%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON