tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 58m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 88% 71%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 02m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 38m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → BWI 11:57 → DFW 14:26AA 2314 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → ONT 19:00AA 3006 10h 03m 98% 55%
FrontierDetails → BWI 13:18 → DFW 15:48F9 1475 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:26 → ONT 18:50F9 4689 8h 32m 87% 55%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 7h 50m 81% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 19m 64% 34%
AmericanDetails → BWI 19:11 → DFW 21:40AA 1213 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 7h 44m 62% 34%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 23m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 8h 19m 68% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON