Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4596 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–56%.

Safest bet that day YX 4596 BWI 06:03 → ORD 07:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:03	ORD 07:21	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 1367 United	BWI 06:26	ORD 07:33	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	17%	6%	0.7%	86%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:25	ORD 12:34	20%	5%	1.7%	79%
UA 249 United	BWI 12:06	ORD 13:16	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:18	ORD 11:32	27%	8%	2.4%	67%
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:08	ORD 15:17	35%	11%	3.2%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:13	ORD 19:33	39%	19%	4.0%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:07	ORD 20:15	55%	23%	1.3%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	56%	23%	1.1%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON