Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1111 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1111 BWI 06:12 → PHX 08:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest SY 3095 BWI 20:24 → PHX 22:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1111 Southwest	BWI 06:12	PHX 08:18	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2871 Southwest	BWI 10:55	PHX 12:43	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 399 Southwest	BWI 16:15	PHX 18:23	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
SY 3095 Sun Country	BWI 20:24	PHX 22:29	35%	14%	2.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 11m	95%	76%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	7h 04m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON