Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2114 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2114 BWI 08:25 → RDU 09:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2807 BWI 19:45 → RDU 21:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2114 Southwest	BWI 08:25	RDU 09:44	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2404 Southwest	BWI 11:45	RDU 13:06	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3212 Southwest	BWI 16:47	RDU 18:03	24%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 3045 Southwest	BWI 21:55	RDU 23:16	26%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 2807 Southwest	BWI 19:45	RDU 21:05	28%	8%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON