Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2168 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2168 Southwest	BWI 10:40	RIC 11:40	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1141 Southwest	BWI 22:45	RIC 23:45	38%	8%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 16m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	55m Boston	BOS 08:55 → RIC 10:50DL 5622 · flown by Republic	4h 29m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152	7h 12m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:06DL 3073	6h 27m	97%	84%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → RIC 10:36AA 5119 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214	6h 57m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:22 → BOS 20:07DL 5644 · flown by Republic	1h 23m Boston	BOS 21:30 → RIC 23:32DL 5676 · flown by Republic	5h 10m	90%	72%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	7h 01m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON