Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2794 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2794 BWI 07:15 → SAN 09:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3422 BWI 19:50 → SAN 22:08 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2794 Southwest	BWI 07:15	SAN 09:24	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1151 Southwest	BWI 14:30	SAN 16:41	34%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3422 Southwest	BWI 19:50	SAN 22:08	41%	10%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843	7h 36m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON