Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2192 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2192 BWI 08:02 → SFO 10:51 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 504 BWI 18:59 → SFO 21:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:02	SFO 10:51	20%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 442 Southwest	BWI 09:05	SFO 11:44	26%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	35%	12%	0.8%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 12m	96%	75%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	55m Charlotte	CLT 07:20 → SFO 09:56AA 2758	7h 55m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 40m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON