Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3951 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3951 BWI 08:15 → SJU 12:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2266 BWI 21:20 → SJU 01:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3951 Southwest	BWI 08:15	SJU 12:27	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1164 Southwest	BWI 20:05	SJU 00:17	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2266 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:20	SJU 01:22	33%	15%	2.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON