tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1168 Southwest BWI 13:50 SMF 16:37 25% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 20m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 27m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 8h 06m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 8h 58m 95% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 1h 55m Seattle SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772 9h 38m 97% 65%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 8h 45m 94% 61%
AmericanDetails → BWI 11:57 → DFW 14:26AA 2314 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651 9h 23m 95% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BWI 18:07 → SEA 21:00AS 379 56m Seattle SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722 8h 43m 53% 35%
AmericanDetails → BWI 19:11 → DFW 21:40AA 1213 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 7h 48m 53% 26%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 58m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 8h 07m 40% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON