Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1173 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1173 BWI 06:07 → TPA 08:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1180 BWI 17:50 → TPA 20:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1173 Southwest	BWI 06:07	TPA 08:44	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 4428 Southwest	BWI 08:27	TPA 11:04	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4536 Southwest	BWI 10:12	TPA 12:50	11%	4%	1.8%	no record
F9 2925 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:16	TPA 11:01	17%	6%	1.3%	73%
WN 2247 Southwest	BWI 16:08	TPA 19:02	21%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1180 Southwest	BWI 17:50	TPA 20:28	25%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON