Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4621 at 19:45, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4621 Southwest	BWI 19:45	TYS 21:29	28%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 30m	99%	86%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	5h 37m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 31m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 19m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → TYS 10:22DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor	4h 18m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 47m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	6h 52m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → TYS 20:08DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	6h 03m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	50m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TYS 21:41DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON