Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1183 at 12:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1183 Southwest	BWI 12:00	VPS 13:32	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 49m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:29 → ATL 12:18DL 1592	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 34m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:20 → ATL 20:34DL 1267	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 09m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 49m	84%	65%
American Details →	BWI 11:57 → DFW 14:26AA 2314	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 41m	95%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON