tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 406 at 14:21, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 406 Delta Flight history → BZN 14:21 ATL 20:14 23% 6% 1.0% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 6h 04m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 6h 39m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 47m Denver DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806 6h 53m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032 8h 08m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → ATL 05:37 +1UA 233 11h 20m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ATL 15:33AA 1008 6h 54m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Seattle SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 9h 39m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912 7h 44m 95% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON