Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	9h 21m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	8h 50m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	8h 59m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	8h 19m	98%	75%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → BOS 19:43DL 438	9h 18m	91%	67%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702	9h 34m	98%	66%
United Details →	BZN 11:35 → EWR 17:57UA 348	3h 38m Newark	EWR 21:35 → BOS 23:02UA 1117	9h 27m	96%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → BOS 23:28DL 300	7h 07m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON