tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2035 at 13:32, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2035 American BZN 13:32 CLT 19:23 34% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 5h 57m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946 3h 22m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 8h 08m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 7h 37m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231 6h 32m 87% 71%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → CLT 18:14AA 3227 9h 35m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → BZN 12:09 → DFW 16:11AA 952 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002 8h 12m 92% 55%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 25m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 42m 80% 46%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 3h 37m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 8h 48m 94% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 1h 30m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 6h 48m 72% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON