Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4885 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 4885 BZN 05:00 → DEN 06:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3898 BZN 16:20 → DEN 18:03 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4885 Southwest	BZN 05:00	DEN 06:43	8%	3%	1.7%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	13%	5%	1.1%	97%
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:44	DEN 12:54	16%	7%	1.9%	no record
WN 2295 Southwest	BZN 11:05	DEN 12:48	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	34%	9%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
UA 431 United Flight history →	BZN 16:32	DEN 18:39	40%	10%	0.8%	65%
WN 3898 Southwest	BZN 16:20	DEN 18:03	52%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON