Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 24% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 348 United Flight history →	BZN 11:35	EWR 17:57	29%	13%	1.3%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	8h 20m	98%	76%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	11h 34m	96%	70%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:09UA 741	2h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 21:56 → EWR 05:58 +1UA 576	10h 32m	95%	69%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 45m Denver	DEN 10:09 → EWR 16:10UA 2381	7h 40m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	9h 34m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	8h 30m	95%	66%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	8h 37m	95%	64%
American Details →	BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:06 → EWR 16:45AA 813	8h 06m	95%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:57 → EWR 21:04UA 2790	6h 16m	66%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON