tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:31DL 1532 7h 16m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 14m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 39m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 6h 59m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 36m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → BZN 11:35 → EWR 17:57UA 348 1h 49m Newark EWR 19:46 → IAH 22:38UA 8127 10h 03m 89% 58%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 3h 15m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 7h 40m 95% 58%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → IAH 13:11AA 1397 5h 32m 93% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:32 → DEN 18:39UA 431 56m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 5h 34m 60% 37%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 55m Denver DEN 17:15 → IAH 20:40UA 1587 5h 14m 59% 33%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 51m Chicago ORD 17:48 → IAH 20:36UA 1921 6h 48m 51% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON