Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	9h 32m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	9h 50m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	8h 30m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 22:18 → JFK 06:31 +1AS 40	10h 40m	97%	66%
American Details →	BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:47AA 1058	9h 08m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	9h 34m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:55AS 34	9h 29m	99%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON