tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 741 at 17:26, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 741 United Flight history → BZN 17:26 LAX 19:09 23% 8% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 23m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 7h 58m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 6h 19m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 04m 91% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 2h 15m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 6h 59m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122 8h 15m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:38 → SEA 16:36DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Seattle SEA 20:25 → LAX 23:15DL 2854 8h 37m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 5h 23m 94% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → LAX 20:35UA 1799 5h 18m 70% 51%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:38 → SEA 16:36DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 54m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 5h 35m 56% 39%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon 48m San Francisco SFO 20:13 → LAX 21:38AS 1412 4h 47m 13% 6%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON