tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 8h 49m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 8h 04m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 87% 70%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817 1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → LGA 17:05AA 672 8h 26m 97% 62%
AmericanDetails → BZN 12:09 → DFW 16:11AA 952 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375 9h 22m 95% 57%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 3h 01m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LGA 23:45AA 1166 8h 34m 94% 46%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 04m 76% 46%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 12m Chicago ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:28UA 2827 8h 40m 94% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 46m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 03m 67% 52%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 1h 00m Chicago ORD 17:57 → LGA 21:08UA 2458 6h 20m 66% 26%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 54m Chicago ORD 18:11 → LGA 21:24AA 774 6h 13m 54% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON