Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1678 Delta Flight history →	BZN 06:00	MSP 09:11	11%	5%	1.2%	95%
DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	BZN 13:36	MSP 16:52	19%	5%	0.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 14m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	8h 04m	96%	77%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 10m	87%	76%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	6h 19m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 18m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:12 → SEA 11:11AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 13:28 → MSP 18:36AS 509	7h 24m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:38 → SEA 16:36DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	6h 52m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	7h 41m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BZN 16:23 → DFW 20:32AA 947	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	6h 34m	68%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON