Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1069 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 1069 BZN 07:57 → ORD 11:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1501 BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1069 United	BZN 07:57	ORD 11:56	18%	10%	1.5%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	34%	18%	1.5%	78%worse than usual
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BZN 13:11	ORD 17:17	43%	21%	1.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON