Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 16:04	PDX 16:50	16%	5%	2.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	7h 40m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37DL 1203	4h 22m	92%	83%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	7h 39m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:38 → SEA 16:36DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 19:44 → PDX 20:51DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	7h 39m	92%	72%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 05m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	5h 14m	94%	70%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 00m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 31m	94%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	53m Seattle	SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488	3h 49m	74%	56%
United Details →	BZN 16:32 → DEN 18:39UA 431	51m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	5h 43m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON