tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 4h 29m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 46m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Seattle SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449 7h 34m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:39 → DFW 10:45AA 817 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:48 → PHX 14:28AA 1548 8h 49m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 33m Denver DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782 5h 34m 87% 70%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 2h 21m Seattle SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700 7h 19m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738 4h 51m 91% 67%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:38 → SEA 16:36DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 8h 55m 97% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 16:23 → DFW 20:32AA 947 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:26 → PHX 22:04AA 2942 6h 41m 67% 37%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:32 → DEN 18:39UA 431 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:44 → PHX 20:44UA 2655 5h 12m 63% 35%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 54m Chicago ORD 18:11 → PHX 19:56AA 1767 7h 45m 54% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON