Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1702 at 16:17, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1702 United Flight history →	BZN 16:17	SFO 17:50	32%	15%	0.7%	56%
AS 2063 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 17:51	SFO 19:25	82%	43%	5.8%	18%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 09m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → SFO 08:51DL 920	4h 36m	95%	71%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 57m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 34m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	5h 22m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:52DL 2946	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	8h 21m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 59m	91%	60%
Alaska Details →	BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon	56m Portland	PDX 17:46 → SFO 19:39AS 1393	4h 35m	82%	59%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:09UA 741	2h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 21:34 → SFO 23:02UA 2056	6h 36m	95%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 16:32 → DEN 18:39UA 431	46m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389	5h 39m	54%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON