Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5459 CAE 07:00 → CLT 08:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5553 CAE 14:35 → CLT 15:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5459 PSA	CAE 07:00	CLT 08:01	15%	6%	1.6%	no record
OH 5083 PSA	CAE 16:11	CLT 17:12	19%	8%	1.9%	no record
OH 5553 PSA	CAE 14:35	CLT 15:36	20%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 5855 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 05:00	CLT 06:09	4%	1%	1.3%	96%
AA 6048 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 08:49	CLT 10:07	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AA 6042 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:10	CLT 12:22	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 07:06	CLT 08:24	19%	10%	0.0%	81%
AA 6047 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 14:32	CLT 15:48	24%	6%	0.0%	76%
AA 6046 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 16:10	CLT 17:27	26%	16%	0.0%	74%
AA 6043 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 20:30	CLT 21:46	46%	13%	2.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON