Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4607 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:18	EWR 13:29	5%	3%	3.2%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 54m	95%	85%
American Details →	CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 07:59 → EWR 09:50AA 1707	4h 50m	99%	83%
American Details →	CAE 07:06 → CLT 08:24AA 5870 · flown by Piedmont	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697	5h 15m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CAE 06:59 → ATL 08:15DL 3061	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 22m	96%	80%
United Details →	CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 08:55 → EWR 12:00UA 2238	5h 35m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	CAE 17:59 → ATL 19:15DL 3032	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 59m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 56m	99%	65%
United Details →	CAE 19:45 → IAD 21:24UA 4259 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 10m Dulles	IAD 23:34 → EWR 01:05 +1UA 3916	5h 20m	96%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CAE 17:49 → ORD 19:07UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	5h 50m	62%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON