Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4259 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 19:45	IAD 21:24	16%	7%	3.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444	6h 06m	98%	86%
United Details →	CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → IAD 13:45UA 1486	7h 20m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695	5h 14m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:57 → ATL 13:13DL 1590	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902	6h 34m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	CAE 17:59 → ATL 19:15DL 3032	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 42m	98%	73%
American Details →	CAE 14:32 → CLT 15:48AA 6047 · flown by Piedmont	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 19:35 → IAD 21:02AA 1954	6h 30m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	CAE 15:51 → ATL 17:00DL 3193	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	5h 12m	91%	64%
United Details →	CAE 11:18 → EWR 13:29UA 4607 · flown by GoJet	1h 36m Newark	EWR 15:05 → IAD 16:40UA 2301	5h 22m	97%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CAE 20:30 → CLT 21:46AA 6043 · flown by Piedmont	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	3h 37m	47%	34%
United Details →	CAE 17:49 → ORD 19:07UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304	5h 20m	64%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON