Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4620 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4620 CAE 05:52 → LGA 07:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5089 CAE 16:03 → LGA 17:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4620 Republic	CAE 05:52	LGA 07:58	6%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 5131 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CAE 06:58	LGA 08:54	10%	4%	1.6%	87%
AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 15:09	LGA 17:14	20%	8%	1.8%	69%
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CAE 16:03	LGA 17:59	26%	9%	1.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON