Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4486 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–41%.

Safest bet that day YX 4486 CAE 05:59 → ORD 07:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4183 CAE 18:20 → ORD 19:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4486 Republic	CAE 05:59	ORD 07:31	5%	3%	1.1%	no record
OO 4670 SkyWest	CAE 06:16	ORD 07:39	10%	5%	1.3%	no record
OO 4677 SkyWest	CAE 10:24	ORD 11:47	18%	9%	1.8%	no record
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CAE 17:49	ORD 19:07	38%	21%	3.1%	58%
AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 18:20	ORD 19:59	41%	16%	4.0%	74%worse than usual
UA 4496 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 06:25	ORD 07:52	7%	6%	1.4%	93%
UA 4189 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:03	ORD 12:25	23%	3%	3.2%	77%
UA 4400 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 17:41	ORD 19:05	24%	14%	8.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON