Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5130 at 15:54, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5130 CHA 15:54 → CLT 17:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5130 PSA	CHA 15:54	CLT 17:16	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 5866 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 05:00	CLT 06:32	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
AA 6050 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 09:19	CLT 10:56	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AA 6105 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 08:18	CLT 09:55	18%	6%	0.0%	82%
AA 6127 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 13:27	CLT 14:58	20%	3%	1.4%	80%
AA 6052 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 18:37	CLT 20:13	33%	20%	2.9%	67%
AA 6051 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 16:33	CLT 18:07	34%	17%	0.0%	66%
AA 6049 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 20:10	CLT 21:44	39%	12%	4.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON