Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 5084 at 06:55, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:55	DCA 08:47	11%	6%	1.2%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41AA 3043	5h 41m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:40DL 3057	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 47m	95%	84%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 08:17 → DCA 11:20UA 1705	5h 20m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:04 → LGA 08:15DL 4890 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 11:20 → DCA 12:42DL 5749 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	4h 33m	93%	77%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399	7h 23m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 55m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	48m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	3h 47m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON