tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4413 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CHA 17:58 EWR 20:19 47% 30% 7.1% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 07:59 → EWR 09:50AA 1707 4h 50m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 56m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:40DL 3057 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 41m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet 1h 56m Chicago ORD 08:55 → EWR 12:00UA 2238 6h 00m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 03m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 23m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → CHA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 5086 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 27m 87% 62%
UnitedDetails → CHA 16:50 → IAH 18:27UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 7h 47m 87% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet 46m Chicago ORD 07:45 → EWR 10:46UA 1273 4h 46m 71% 61%
DeltaDetails → CHA 15:00 → DTW 16:58DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor 46m Detroit DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567 4h 30m 71% 42%
AmericanDetails → CHA 16:33 → CLT 18:07AA 6051 · flown by Piedmont 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → EWR 21:14AA 997 4h 41m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON