Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:50	IAH 18:27	22%	13%	0.9%	63%
UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 07:00	IAH 08:23	22%	9%	1.3%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	54m Charlotte	CLT 07:26 → IAH 09:08AA 2445	5h 08m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 20m	100%	80%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:40DL 3057	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	5h 34m	98%	77%
American Details →	CHA 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 12:22 → IAH 14:05AA 398	6h 47m	99%	74%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:25AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 21m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223	6h 53m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → IAH 20:14DL 2327	6h 24m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHA 13:53 → ORD 14:55UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	55m Chicago	ORD 15:50 → IAH 18:35UA 2062	5h 42m	65%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON