Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4026 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–61%.

Safest bet that day WN 4026 MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1559 ORD 18:18 → DFW 20:55 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4026 Southwest	MDW 05:00	DAL 07:23	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1426 Southwest	MDW 08:30	DAL 10:53	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	9%	4%	1.7%	89%
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	14%	4%	1.7%	86%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	14%	6%	1.0%	82%
WN 4098 Southwest	MDW 11:00	DAL 13:24	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2865 Southwest	MDW 12:25	DAL 14:49	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	17%	7%	0.9%	79%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:12	DFW 09:43	20%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	21%	10%	1.4%	77%
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DFW 08:34	21%	6%	2.3%	60%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	22%	7%	1.3%	71%
AA 1459 American	ORD 09:57	DFW 12:28	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:45	DFW 15:18	27%	13%	2.3%	64%
WN 3538 Southwest	MDW 15:25	DAL 17:50	27%	10%	8.1%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	30%	16%	1.6%	76%
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:21	DFW 14:51	34%	12%	2.2%	no record
WN 1410 Southwest	MDW 18:35	DAL 21:00	38%	12%	7.1%	no record
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:12	DFW 15:48	39%	14%	3.2%	72%worse than usual
WN 2893 Southwest	MDW 21:15	DAL 23:40	39%	12%	2.9%	no record
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	40%	20%	2.8%	68%
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:48	DFW 16:20	40%	14%	2.1%	no record
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 12:37	DFW 15:05	40%	13%	2.1%	41%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:35	DFW 17:09	40%	18%	4.1%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:10	DFW 17:48	47%	18%	4.9%	73%worse than usual
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	50%	22%	1.5%	65%worse than usual
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:17	DFW 21:56	50%	14%	5.4%	no record
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 16:13	DFW 18:46	55%	22%	5.9%	73%worse than usual
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	DFW 20:05	60%	23%	5.2%	56%worse than usual
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DFW 23:48	61%	18%	3.0%	63%worse than usual
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:18	DFW 20:55	61%	23%	3.2%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON