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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 37 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1572 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–65%.

Safest bet that day WN 1572 MDW 06:55 → LAX 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:07 → LAX 21:26 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 1572 Southwest MDW 06:55 LAX 09:12 11% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2361 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LAX 09:33 16% 4% 0.7% 90%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:29 LAX 10:00 17% 4% 0.6% 80%
AA 607 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:20 17% 4% 0.9% 88%
UA 2373 United Flight history → ORD 06:01 LAX 08:18 17% 3% 0.7% 89%
WN 2335 Southwest MDW 11:00 LGB 13:47 18% 4% 1.0% no record
WN 2526 Southwest MDW 10:50 BUR 13:20 19% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 1304 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 SNA 11:21 19% 5% 0.7% 79%
AA 1920 American ORD 08:16 SNA 10:45 20% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 1009 American ORD 07:03 LAX 09:19 21% 6% 0.8% no record
WN 673 Southwest MDW 10:25 LAX 12:42 23% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 2814 United Flight history → ORD 08:48 LAX 11:26 24% 6% 0.7% 82%
AA 1979 American Flight history → ORD 09:00 LAX 11:21 28% 6% 0.9% 74%
AA 2012 American Flight history → ORD 08:10 LAX 10:35 28% 6% 0.8% 70%
UA 2170 United ORD 10:27 LAX 12:39 30% 8% 0.8% no record
UA 1363 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LAX 15:34 32% 10% 0.8% 83%worse than usual
AA 3008 American Flight history → ORD 12:13 LAX 14:36 34% 9% 1.2% 79%worse than usual
AA 1916 American ORD 12:02 SNA 14:32 35% 9% 1.6% no record
AA 2903 American ORD 13:56 LAX 16:19 37% 12% 1.3% no record
WN 2947 Southwest MDW 18:10 ONT 20:29 38% 11% 4.7% no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:42 LAX 17:14 39% 12% 1.4% 68%
UA 374 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 LAX 17:05 41% 16% 1.9% 80%worse than usual
WN 1660 Southwest MDW 17:40 LAX 19:59 43% 11% 5.1% no record
UA 576 United Flight history → ORD 15:47 LAX 18:20 43% 18% 2.0% 76%worse than usual
UA 542 United ORD 15:23 LAX 17:50 45% 18% 2.0% no record
WN 246 Southwest MDW 22:30 LAX 00:51 46% 14% 1.2% no record
UA 308 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 SNA 22:19 46% 12% 1.1% 84%worse than usual
UA 1317 United Flight history → ORD 16:20 SNA 18:58 48% 19% 2.1% 70%worse than usual
AA 529 American Flight history → ORD 15:21 LAX 17:43 49% 18% 3.6% 59%
AA 1179 American Flight history → ORD 17:49 SNA 20:22 51% 13% 3.5% 74%worse than usual
UA 2494 United ORD 17:00 LAX 19:30 52% 20% 1.8% no record
UA 1967 United Flight history → ORD 18:10 LAX 20:40 53% 21% 1.1% 69%worse than usual
AA 1114 American ORD 21:18 LAX 23:49 55% 16% 1.5% no record
DL 1775 Delta ORD 19:07 LAX 21:26 55% 20% 0.9% no record
UA 2499 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 LAX 22:55 56% 20% 1.4% 58%worse than usual
AA 2364 American Flight history → ORD 19:08 LAX 21:33 61% 20% 1.5% 59%worse than usual
AA 3063 American Flight history → ORD 19:07 LAX 21:26 65% 21% 1.6% 58%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 59m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 6h 07m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 6h 14m 77% 64%
FrontierDetails → ORD 06:24 → DEN 08:05F9 1483 55m Denver DEN 09:00 → SNA 10:28F9 4371 6h 04m 75% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON