tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 52 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1177 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–58%.

Safest bet that day WN 1177 MDW 05:10 → BWI 08:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 220 ORD 19:41 → BWI 22:40 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1177 Southwest MDW 05:10 BWI 08:09 3% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 2869 Southwest MDW 05:30 DCA 08:31 3% 1% 0.7% no record
YX 4494 Republic ORD 05:59 DCA 09:08 5% 2% 1.1% no record
WN 814 Southwest MDW 08:40 BWI 11:39 6% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 495 American ORD 06:56 DCA 10:02 8% 4% 1.1% no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 06:56 BWI 09:58 8% 3% 1.1% 93%
UA 1077 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 DCA 08:54 8% 3% 0.8% 92%
UA 1269 United Flight history → ORD 06:30 BWI 09:27 9% 3% 0.8% 94%
UA 482 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 DCA 09:59 9% 4% 0.8% 86%
WN 1762 Southwest MDW 09:26 DCA 12:24 10% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1705 United Flight history → ORD 08:17 DCA 11:20 11% 5% 0.8% 90%
UA 2277 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 IAD 11:52 11% 3% 0.7% 92%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:51 BWI 12:53 12% 3% 1.3% 78%
AA 523 American Flight history → ORD 08:53 DCA 11:59 12% 5% 1.1% 79%
AA 2345 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 10:59 14% 4% 1.1% 77%
AA 315 American ORD 09:51 DCA 12:57 15% 6% 1.4% no record
UA 1904 United ORD 09:57 DCA 13:00 16% 6% 0.9% no record
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history → ORD 06:16 BWI 09:25 17% 5% 1.6% 65%
WN 1699 Southwest MDW 12:55 BWI 15:54 18% 5% 1.4% no record
AA 1200 American Flight history → ORD 10:35 DCA 13:41 19% 8% 1.8% 61%
UA 202 United ORD 10:53 DCA 13:53 19% 8% 1.0% no record
WN 3631 Southwest MDW 12:00 DCA 15:01 19% 6% 1.2% no record
UA 1486 United ORD 10:51 IAD 13:45 20% 5% 0.9% no record
UA 2668 United Flight history → ORD 11:15 DCA 14:22 22% 11% 1.1% 69%
WN 2645 Southwest MDW 14:10 DCA 17:11 24% 9% 1.5% no record
YX 4758 Republic ORD 14:31 BWI 17:40 25% 10% 4.6% no record
UA 8253 United ORD 11:04 BWI 13:59 26% 7% 1.0% no record
UA 752 United Flight history → ORD 12:45 DCA 15:52 26% 14% 1.3% 65%
UA 1128 United ORD 12:51 IAD 15:46 27% 9% 1.0% no record
UA 1314 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 DCA 17:12 33% 17% 3.5% 56%
AA 789 American ORD 13:17 DCA 16:22 33% 13% 2.3% no record
UA 587 United Flight history → ORD 14:57 IAD 18:00 34% 13% 2.6% 73%
WN 4305 Southwest MDW 20:11 DCA 23:11 35% 13% 4.9% no record
WN 1088 Southwest MDW 16:45 DCA 19:46 38% 15% 6.8% no record
WN 1588 Southwest MDW 21:20 BWI 00:19 38% 11% 3.6% no record
UA 1941 United Flight history → ORD 15:00 DCA 18:11 39% 18% 3.8% 66%
AA 535 American ORD 21:05 DCA 00:19 39% 14% 3.6% no record
WN 2849 Southwest MDW 19:10 BWI 22:09 39% 12% 4.7% no record
UA 2737 United ORD 15:23 BWI 18:31 39% 18% 2.7% no record
AA 2769 American Flight history → ORD 14:55 DCA 18:00 40% 16% 4.5% 74%worse than usual
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 18:39 BWI 21:48 41% 16% 3.8% 79%worse than usual
UA 1922 United ORD 21:42 IAD 00:35 45% 11% 0.9% no record
UA 2812 United ORD 16:20 DCA 19:28 45% 23% 5.3% no record
UA 304 United ORD 20:11 IAD 23:09 45% 17% 1.2% no record
AA 489 American Flight history → ORD 17:10 DCA 20:26 47% 21% 5.3% 70%worse than usual
UA 2761 United ORD 17:19 DCA 20:26 47% 22% 3.2% no record
UA 1369 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 DCA 21:10 48% 23% 1.7% 50%
UA 2202 United Flight history → ORD 18:09 IAD 21:18 50% 16% 1.1% 57%
UA 2160 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 DCA 22:54 51% 21% 1.7% 56%
AA 514 American ORD 17:52 DCA 20:58 51% 21% 5.4% no record
UA 1557 United ORD 17:51 BWI 20:51 55% 24% 2.3% no record
UA 220 United ORD 19:41 BWI 22:40 58% 24% 1.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON