Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3055 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3055 CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3179 CHS 19:59 → ATL 21:26 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3055 Delta Flight history →	CHS 05:10	ATL 06:17	5%	2%	0.9%	97%
DL 2124 Delta Flight history →	CHS 06:15	ATL 07:25	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 789 Delta Flight history →	CHS 08:20	ATL 09:34	9%	2%	0.9%	98%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	CHS 11:18	ATL 12:27	13%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	CHS 13:05	ATL 14:20	16%	3%	1.1%	91%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 14:27	ATL 15:43	17%	4%	1.0%	84%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	CHS 18:28	ATL 19:46	18%	5%	1.2%	84%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	CHS 17:00	ATL 18:19	20%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 19:59	ATL 21:26	21%	5%	1.2%	78%
DL 5450 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 09:41	ATL 11:00	4%	2%	0.0%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON