tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 5h 17m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 5h 48m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 37m Newark EWR 09:36 → AUS 12:43UA 1238 7h 43m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 5h 13m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → CHS 05:53 → MIA 07:40AA 1763 2h 09m Miami MIA 09:49 → AUS 11:57AA 812 7h 04m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → CHS 10:00 → IAD 11:37UA 1858 1h 01m Dulles IAD 12:38 → AUS 15:22UA 2746 6h 22m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 9h 06m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CHS 15:34 → EWR 17:37UA 2693 1h 15m Newark EWR 18:52 → AUS 21:57UA 1032 7h 23m 72% 44%
AmericanDetails → CHS 18:23 → CLT 19:32AA 3117 57m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434 4h 54m 64% 37%
JetBlueDetails → CHS 18:30 → FLL 20:10B6 1131 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → AUS 23:08B6 2271 5h 38m 59% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON