Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5670 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5670 CHS 11:55 → BOS 14:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 68 CHS 15:00 → BOS 17:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5670 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 11:55	BOS 14:23	11%	4%	1.1%	91%
B6 568 JetBlue	CHS 12:40	BOS 15:05	16%	9%	1.2%	no record
DL 2785 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:35	BOS 18:04	22%	10%	1.2%	67%
B6 68 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 15:00	BOS 17:25	28%	13%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON