Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5166 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day OH 5166 CHS 05:05 → CLT 06:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 403 CHS 16:37 → CLT 17:44 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5166 PSA	CHS 05:05	CLT 06:16	8%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 06:58	CLT 08:03	12%	4%	1.4%	98%
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CHS 09:37	CLT 10:45	13%	5%	1.5%	91%
AA 1586 American Flight history →	CHS 20:50	CLT 22:04	27%	8%	1.9%	76%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 15:05	CLT 16:16	28%	7%	2.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 18:23	CLT 19:32	34%	9%	1.8%	54%
AA 403 American	CHS 16:37	CLT 17:44	35%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 08:48	CLT 10:15	7%	0%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON