Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4670 at 18:10, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4670 Southwest	CHS 18:10	DAL 20:01	31%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	5h 06m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 09m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 25m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON