Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2773 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2773 CHS 05:55 → DCA 07:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5056 CHS 19:49 → DCA 21:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2773 American	CHS 05:55	DCA 07:36	5%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3891 Envoy	CHS 11:32	DCA 13:10	12%	4%	2.6%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 13:48	DCA 15:31	20%	8%	3.1%	85%
OH 5566 PSA	CHS 16:12	DCA 17:55	24%	10%	3.0%	no record
OH 5056 PSA	CHS 19:49	DCA 21:47	32%	14%	5.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON