Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 662 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 662 CHS 08:24 → DEN 10:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 557 CHS 16:18 → DEN 18:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 662 United	CHS 08:24	DEN 10:34	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 500 Southwest	CHS 13:25	DEN 15:20	31%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 557 United Flight history →	CHS 16:18	DEN 18:05	40%	9%	1.3%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:14 → DEN 09:26DL 346	5h 11m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	5h 40m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 29m	83%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON