Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4664 at 11:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4664 CHS 11:56 → LGA 14:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1404 CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4664 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 11:56	LGA 14:07	13%	5%	3.2%	88%
AA 4351 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 17:32	LGA 19:46	17%	7%	4.0%	60%
DL 2013 Delta	CHS 11:40	LGA 13:37	20%	5%	2.8%	no record
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:42	LGA 17:48	30%	10%	2.3%	63%
DL 5093 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 07:00	LGA 09:00	16%	7%	7.7%	84%
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 11:25	LGA 13:27	20%	8%	3.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON