Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1763 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CHS 05:53	MIA 07:40	11%	3%	1.4%	96%
MQ 3867 Envoy	CHS 18:53	MIA 20:42	36%	8%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 47m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 52m	99%	71%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	1h 14m Newark	EWR 09:13 → MIA 12:30UA 2785	6h 30m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 27m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 39m	99%	67%
American Details →	CHS 06:58 → CLT 08:03AA 3298	2h 59m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 13m	92%	61%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	7h 14m	100%	61%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:30DL 1323	7h 10m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON