Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2680 CHS 16:59 → ORD 18:27 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	ORD 07:33	5%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 3187 American	CHS 07:16	ORD 08:51	14%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:24	ORD 12:52	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 18:52	ORD 20:30	35%	19%	5.6%	57%
MQ 3868 Envoy	CHS 19:45	ORD 21:17	38%	16%	7.2%	no record
AA 2154 American	CHS 14:04	ORD 15:38	41%	18%	3.0%	no record
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:59	ORD 18:27	42%	21%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON