Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1182 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1182 CHS 07:16 → PHL 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 499 CHS 18:50 → PHL 20:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1182 American	CHS 07:16	PHL 09:19	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1526 American Flight history →	CHS 11:20	PHL 13:23	16%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 2447 American Flight history →	CHS 13:09	PHL 15:04	32%	8%	1.3%	75%
AA 499 American	CHS 18:50	PHL 20:52	34%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON